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Economic Calendar | National Holidays Calendar | Interest Rates Calendar

Daily Analysis for FRIDAY - JULY 20th

Higher than expected CPI and Bernanke ruling out a rate cut could support USD short-term


In Bernanke's Semi-Annual Testimony, he paved the way for an unchanged Fed's Funds Rate through the rest of 2007 and perhaps beyond aswell. That might be punishing the die-hard USD bears...

Overnight News Bullets

  • SZ Trade Balance (JUN) out at 1.72B, while 1.15B expected, 1.04B prior.
  • UK Retail Sales MoM/YoY (JUN) out at 0.2%/3.4%, while 0.3%/3.5% expected, 0.4%/3.9% prior.
  • UK Public Finances PSNCR (JUN) out at 10.3B, while 12.1B expected, 6.2B prior.
  • UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUN) out at 7.4B, while 6.2B expected, 8.2B prior.
  • UK M4 Money Supply MoM/YoY (JUN) out at 0.8%/13.0%, while 1.3%/13.9% prior.
  • UK BSA Mortgage Approvals (JUN) out at £3972M, while £4262M prior.
  • UK M4 Sterling Lending (JUN) out at 5.1B, while 18.9B expected, 23.3B prior.
  • SZ ZEW Survey Expectations (JUL) out at -2.1, while -0.1 prior.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (JUL) out at 301K, while 311K expected, 308K prior.
  • CA Wholesale Sales MoM (MAY) out at 0.6%, while 0.5% expected, -3.1% prior.
  • CA International Securities Transactions (MAY) out at –C$3.111, while C$2.000 expected, C$1.543 prior.
  • US Continuing Claims (JUL) out at 2571K, while 2550K expected, 2554K prior.
  • US Leading Indicators (JUN) out at -0.3%, while -0.1% expected, 0.3% prior.
  • US Philidelphia Fed (JUL) out at 9.2, while 13.8 expected, 18.0 prior.
  • NZ Visitor Arrivals (JUN) out at 0.8%, while 1.8% prior.
  • JN Net Stocks Investment (JUL) out at JPY143.4B, while JPY761.8B prior.
  • JN Net Bonds Investment (JUL) out at JPY39.6B, while JPY324.8B prior.
  • AU Import Price Index QoQ (2Q) out at 0.1%, while -1.7% prior.
  • AU Export Price Index QoQ (2Q) out at 0.3%, while 0.0% prior.
  • AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM/YoY (JUN) out at 2.2%/11.3%, while -0.5%/6.6% prior.
  • NZ Credit Card Spending YoY (JUN) out at 9.1%, while 5.8% prior.

Markets

  • FX: JPY marginally weaker, USD range bound. EUR marginally stronger, but remains range bound.

O/N Data Heat map:

EU US JP UK SZ AU CA NZ NO SE FR
- - + + +


Calendar

Today's Highlights:

Time (GMT) Region Release Consensus
07:15 SZ Producer and Import Price MoM/YoY (JUN) 0.3% / 3.2%
08:30 UK GDP QoQ/YoY (2Q) 0.7%/2.9%
08:30 UK Index of Services 3mth/3mth (MAY) 1.0%
17:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Prior 1791

This and Next Week’s Highlights:

Date Region Release
22 July UK Rightmove House Prices.
23 July AU Producer Price Index.
23 July JN Supermarket Sales.
24 July EC Euro-Zone Current Account, PMI Composite, Industrial New Orders.
24 July CA Retail Sales.
24 July US Richmond Fed. Manufaturing Index, ABC Consumer Confidence.
24 July JN Merchands Trade Balance, Adjusted Merchands Trade Balance.
25 July AU Consumer Prices, RBA Trimmed Mean, RBA Trimmed Median.
25 July UK Nationwide House Prices.
25 July SW Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance.
25 July US Existing Home Sales, DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, Fed’s Beige Book.
25 July NZ RBNZ Official Cast Rate.



What's going on?

No important data releases today except the UK GDP. We believe the FX majors will consolidate .

FX

ZAR to be the new darling among Carry Traders...?

http://www.saxobank.com/__DotNet/Site/Analysis/GetImage.aspx?ResUID=fa29ae37-40c5-46eb-8a7f-d31349d2411e

EUR USD JPY GBP CHF AUD CAD NZD NOK SEK ZAR
- - + + + +

FX Trading Strategies

Pair Supp. Resis. Comments
USDZAR 6.85 7.08 ZAR has a very attractive yield (9.5%) and has been the only high
yielding currency that has been poorly performing in the past year.
Sell at the break of support and target 6 longer-term.
GBPJPY 249.60 250.60 UK GDP today. Sell break of support, buy break of resistance.
Use a 30 pips stop. Sell target: 248.75. Buy target: 252.

Risk warning

Forexwebtrader shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Forexwebtrader that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

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