Daily Analysis for JULY 30, 2007
A day for consolidation
No fresh data and no important events today - investors will likely reconsider the reasons for the sell-off last week. We might see a bounce higher in Carry Trades , but nothing spectacular.
Overnight News Bullets
- GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG) out at 8.7, while 8.8 expected, 8.4 prior.
- SW Retails Sales MoM/YoY (JUN) out at 1.9%/8.5%, while 1.0%/6.5% expected, 0.2%/5.7% prior.
- SZ KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JUL) out at 2.13, while 2.01 expected, 1.98 prior.
- US GDP Annualized (2Q) out at 3.4%, while 3.2% expected, 0.7% prior.
- US Personal Consumption (2Q) out at 1.3%, while 1.5% expected, 4.2% prior.
- US GDP Price Index (2Q) out at 2.7%, while 3.4% expected, 4.2% prior.
- US Core PCE QoQ (2Q) out at 1.4%, while 1.4% expected, 1.4% prior.
- GE Consumer Price Index MoM/YoY (JUL) out at 0.4%/1.9%, while 0.4%/1.8% expected, 0.1%/1.8% prior.
- GE CPI EU-harmonised MoM/YoY (JUL) out at 0.7%/2.2%, while 0.4%/1.9% expected, 0.1%/2.0% prior.
- US University of Michigan Confidence (JUL) out at 90.4, while 91.2 expected, 92.4 prior.
- US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (JUL) out at 1775, while 1790 prior.
- NZ Building Permits MoM (JUN) out at 15.8%, while 5.5% prior (revised 5.8%)
- JN Industrial Production MoM/YoY (JUN) out at 1.2%/1.0%, while 1.0%/0.9% expected, -0.3%/3.8% prior.
- AU NAB Business Confidence (2Q) out at 12, while 10 prior.
- AU HIA New Home Sales MoM (JUN) out at -0.8%, while -4.4% prior.
- JN Vehicle Production YoY (JUN) out at -2.9%, while 6.3% prior.
- NZ M3 Money Supply (JUN) out at 10.8%, while 13.2% prior.
Markets
- FX: JPY stronger, USD weaker. EUR weaker.
O/N Data Heat map:
EU US JP UK SZ AU CA NZ NO SE FR
- -
+
+
+
Calendar
Today's Highlights:
Time (GMT) Region Release Consensus 06:50 FR Producer Prices MoM/YoY (JUN) 0.2% / 1.6% 08:30 UK M4 Money Supply MoM/YoY (JUN) Prior 0.8%/13.0% 08:30 UK M4 Sterling Lending (JUN) Prior 5.1B 08:30 UK Mortgage Approvals (JUN) 110K 12:30 CA Industrial Produce Price MoM (JUN) -0.6% 12:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index MoM (JUN) -0.3% 17:00 FR Unemployment Rate (JUN) 8.1% 17:00 FR Unemployemnt Change (JUN) -19K 23:30 JN Jobless Rate (JUN) 3.8% 23:30 JN Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI 51.0 23:30 JN Overall Household Spending YoY (JUN) 0.7%
This and Next Week’s Highlights:
Date Region Release 31 Jul JN Labor Cash Earnings, Overtime Earnings, Housing Starts, Construction Orders, Small Business Confidence. 31 Jul AU Building Approvals, Private Sector Credit, NAB Business Conditions, Private Sector Credit, AiG Performance of Mfg. Index. 31 Jul NZ NBNZ Business Confidence. 31 Jul GE Retail Sales, ILO Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate, IFO Business Climate Survey 31 Jul FR Housing Starts, Housing Permits, Consumer Confidence Indicator 31 Jul SZ UBS Consumption Indicator. 31 Jul NO Credit Indicator Growth. 31 Jul EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence, Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence, Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator, Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate, Euro-Zone CPI Estimate, Euro-Zone Economic Confidence, Euro-Zone Services Confidence. 31 Jul UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, U.K., Nationwide Consumer Confidence. 31 Jul US Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, PCE Core, Employment Cost Index, S&P/CS Composite-20 Home Price, Chigago Purchasing Manager, Consumer Confidence, Construction Spending, ABC Consumer Confidence.
What's going on?
- Carry Trade crosses experienced some buying interest after the significant correction last week, but it might still be too early to enter on the long side, hoping for a relief rally.
- US GDP figures on Friday were mixed. Growth was decent, but Private Consumption growth was slowing to 1.3% annualized.
FX
GBPUSD to perform a relief rally?
EUR USD JPY GBP CHF AUD CAD NZD NOK SEK PLN
-
+ +
-
+ +
FX Trading Strategies
Pair Supp. Resis. Comments GBPUSD 2.0170 2.0280 We buy GBPUSD at the break of 2.0250 bid, stop offer at 2.0220,
targeting 2.0350 as we don't consider the US figures on Friday to have
been reflected in this pair. With US inflation figures coming off and
a continued hawkish BoE the pair should be supported by this.
A day for consolidation
No fresh data and no important events today - investors will likely reconsider the reasons for the sell-off last week. We might see a bounce higher in Carry Trades , but nothing spectacular.
Overnight News Bullets
- GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG) out at 8.7, while 8.8 expected, 8.4 prior.
- SW Retails Sales MoM/YoY (JUN) out at 1.9%/8.5%, while 1.0%/6.5% expected, 0.2%/5.7% prior.
- SZ KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JUL) out at 2.13, while 2.01 expected, 1.98 prior.
- US GDP Annualized (2Q) out at 3.4%, while 3.2% expected, 0.7% prior.
- US Personal Consumption (2Q) out at 1.3%, while 1.5% expected, 4.2% prior.
- US GDP Price Index (2Q) out at 2.7%, while 3.4% expected, 4.2% prior.
- US Core PCE QoQ (2Q) out at 1.4%, while 1.4% expected, 1.4% prior.
- GE Consumer Price Index MoM/YoY (JUL) out at 0.4%/1.9%, while 0.4%/1.8% expected, 0.1%/1.8% prior.
- GE CPI EU-harmonised MoM/YoY (JUL) out at 0.7%/2.2%, while 0.4%/1.9% expected, 0.1%/2.0% prior.
- US University of Michigan Confidence (JUL) out at 90.4, while 91.2 expected, 92.4 prior.
- US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (JUL) out at 1775, while 1790 prior.
- NZ Building Permits MoM (JUN) out at 15.8%, while 5.5% prior (revised 5.8%)
- JN Industrial Production MoM/YoY (JUN) out at 1.2%/1.0%, while 1.0%/0.9% expected, -0.3%/3.8% prior.
- AU NAB Business Confidence (2Q) out at 12, while 10 prior.
- AU HIA New Home Sales MoM (JUN) out at -0.8%, while -4.4% prior.
- JN Vehicle Production YoY (JUN) out at -2.9%, while 6.3% prior.
- NZ M3 Money Supply (JUN) out at 10.8%, while 13.2% prior.
Markets
- FX: JPY stronger, USD weaker. EUR weaker.
O/N Data Heat map:
| EU | US | JP | UK | SZ | AU | CA | NZ | NO | SE | FR |
| - | - | + | + | + |
Calendar
Today's Highlights:
| Time (GMT) | Region | Release | Consensus |
| 06:50 | FR | Producer Prices MoM/YoY (JUN) | 0.2% / 1.6% |
| 08:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM/YoY (JUN) | Prior 0.8%/13.0% |
| 08:30 | UK | M4 Sterling Lending (JUN) | Prior 5.1B |
| 08:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals (JUN) | 110K |
| 12:30 | CA | Industrial Produce Price MoM (JUN) | -0.6% |
| 12:30 | CA | Raw Materials Price Index MoM (JUN) | -0.3% |
| 17:00 | FR | Unemployment Rate (JUN) | 8.1% |
| 17:00 | FR | Unemployemnt Change (JUN) | -19K |
| 23:30 | JN | Jobless Rate (JUN) | 3.8% |
| 23:30 | JN | Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI | 51.0 |
| 23:30 | JN | Overall Household Spending YoY (JUN) | 0.7% |
This and Next Week’s Highlights:
| Date | Region | Release |
| 31 Jul | JN | Labor Cash Earnings, Overtime Earnings, Housing Starts, Construction Orders, Small Business Confidence. |
| 31 Jul | AU | Building Approvals, Private Sector Credit, NAB Business Conditions, Private Sector Credit, AiG Performance of Mfg. Index. |
| 31 Jul | NZ | NBNZ Business Confidence. |
| 31 Jul | GE | Retail Sales, ILO Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate, IFO Business Climate Survey |
| 31 Jul | FR | Housing Starts, Housing Permits, Consumer Confidence Indicator |
| 31 Jul | SZ | UBS Consumption Indicator. |
| 31 Jul | NO | Credit Indicator Growth. |
| 31 Jul | EC | Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence, Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence, Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator, Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate, Euro-Zone CPI Estimate, Euro-Zone Economic Confidence, Euro-Zone Services Confidence. |
| 31 Jul | UK | GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, U.K., Nationwide Consumer Confidence. |
| 31 Jul | US | Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, PCE Core, Employment Cost Index, S&P/CS Composite-20 Home Price, Chigago Purchasing Manager, Consumer Confidence, Construction Spending, ABC Consumer Confidence. |
What's going on?
- Carry Trade crosses experienced some buying interest after the significant correction last week, but it might still be too early to enter on the long side, hoping for a relief rally.
- US GDP figures on Friday were mixed. Growth was decent, but Private Consumption growth was slowing to 1.3% annualized.
FX
GBPUSD to perform a relief rally?
| EUR | USD | JPY | GBP | CHF | AUD | CAD | NZD | NOK | SEK | PLN |
| - | + | + | - | + | + |
FX Trading Strategies
| Pair | Supp. | Resis. | Comments |
| GBPUSD | 2.0170 | 2.0280 | We buy GBPUSD at the break of 2.0250 bid, stop offer at 2.0220, targeting 2.0350 as we don't consider the US figures on Friday to have been reflected in this pair. With US inflation figures coming off and a continued hawkish BoE the pair should be supported by this. |
Risk warning
ForexWebTrader shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
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