Daily Analysis for MONDAY - JULY 23rd
Published: Jul. 23 2007, 10:46 GMT
USD weakening again | |
JPY crosses getting hit, lost momentum. Stocks looking weak, going into the European session. |
Overnight News Bullets
- UK GDP QoQ/YoY (2Q) out at 0.8%/3.0%, while 0.7%/2.9% expected, 0.7%/3.0% prior.
- UK Index of Services 3mth/3mth (MAY) out at 0.9%, while 1.0% expected, 1.0% prior.
- US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (JUL) out at 1790, while 1791 prior.
- UK Rightmove House Prices MoM/YoY (JUL) out at 0.6%/11.2%, while 0.3%/10.3% expected, 0.8%13.2%.
- AU Producer Price Index QoQ/YoY (2Q) out at 1.0%/2.3%, while 0.8%/2.0% expected, 0.0%/2.8% prior.
- JN Supermarket Sales YoY (JUN) out at -1.5%, while -0.6% prior.
Markets
- FX: JPY marginally stronger, USD range bound. EUR marginally weaker, but remains range bound.
O/N Data Heat map:
EU | US | JP | UK | SZ | AU | CA | NZ | NO | SE | FR |
- | - | - |
Calendar
Today's Highlights:
Time (GMT) | Region | Release | Consensus |
12:00 | HU | Interest Rate Announcement | 7.75% |
This and Next Week’s Highlights:
Date | Region | Release |
24 July | EC | Euro-Zone Current Account, PMI Composite, Industrial New Orders. |
24 July | CA | Retail Sales. |
24 July | US | Richmond Fed. Manufaturing Index, ABC Consumer Confidence. |
24 July | JN | Merchands Trade Balance, Adjusted Merchands Trade Balance. |
25 July | AU | Consumer Prices, RBA Trimmed Mean, RBA Trimmed Median. |
25 July | UK | Nationwide House Prices. |
25 July | SW | Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance. |
25 July | US | Existing Home Sales, DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, Fed’s Beige Book. |
25 July | NZ | RBNZ Official Cast Rate. |
What's going on?
- Turkish election: AK Party (moderate reform islamists) wins with 52%. TRY is benefitting from this.
- No economic releases today, only a couple of ECB representatives talking.
- EURUSD again trading at new highs due to USD weakness. JPY strengthening a tad. Japanese 6-months rates edging higher by the day. We might see a dip in JPY-crosses today.
Subprime Update: Previously BBB-rated tranches of Subprime Mortgage Bonds are now trading at 50 cents to the dollar and default swaps for high yield bonds have risen 125 bps. this month (from 275 to 400). Scary stuff, but it still looks contained in terms of spill-over effects to the broader economy and the labor market.
FX
USDJPY looking weakest among JPY-crosses
EUR | USD | JPY | GBP | CHF | AUD | CAD | NZD | NOK | SEK | PLN |
+ | - | + | + | + |
FX Trading Strategies
Pair | Supp. | Resis. | Comments |
USDJPY | 120.67 | 122.50 | USDJPY starting to look very soft, despite other carry crosses looking more supportive, which leads to dollar foucs for this break to likely happen. A break below 120.65-70 lows from May 17th along with 38% retracement (from 115.16-124.16) to accelerate the downside. |
Risk warning
ForexWebTrader shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
No comments:
Post a Comment