Forex Weekly Analysis | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 23 07 13:54 GMT |

Weekly Technical Strategist

• EURUSD: Hits 1.4119 High, Eyes Further Upside Gains
• GBPUSD: Looks To Test 2.0304/65 Levels
• USDJPY: Trades In A symmetrical Triange

EURUSD

EUR followed through to the upside on its recent rally the past week, breaking through its psychological resistance at 1.4000 and testing its 1992 high at 1.4104 before a slight pullback to close the week at 1.4090.As long as the pair continues to trade above its psychological resistance turned support, odds are for a run at and a possible break of the 1.4104 level. On such a break,its 1.272 Ext at 1.4250(monthly chart) will be targeted ahead of its 1995 high at 1.4535.The weekly RSI remains positive and trending higher suggesting further strength.Alternatively,if weakness is seen as a result of over extension of its daily studies, the first place to aim at on the downside lies at its psychological level at 1.4000,which should now revert to support. This is followed by the 1.3928 level, marking its Sept 13'07 high and then its July 24'07 high/its .382 Ret (1.3551-1.4119 rally) at 1.3838/52.Below here exposes its rising trendline drawn off the 1.3551 low currently at 1.3769.On the whole, EUR looks to push higher in continuation of its medium and long term uptrend with the only nearer term risk being the overbought condition now a factor on the daily time frame.

Directional Bias:

• Nearer Term -Bullish
• Short Term -Bullish
• Medium Term -Bullish

Performance in %:

• Past Week: +1.54%
• Past Month: -0.33%
• Past Quarter: +1.39%
• Year-To-Date: +6.77%

Weekly Range:

• High -1.4119
• Low -1.3828

Weekly Chart: EURUSD

GBPUSD

After a failure at the 2.0365 level, its Sept 12'07 high saw GBP tumble to a low of 1.9877 on Tuesday, the managed to bounce off that low as well as ahead of weekly rising channel base to put in a positive close at 2.0201 on Friday. With this development, the pair is now up against its falling trendline at 2.0304 which dates back to July 24'07 followed by its Sept 12'07 swing high at 2.0365.Breaking and maintaining above these levels are required to reduce short term downside pressure and bring upside strength towards the 2.0461 level, its Aug 06 high and ultimately the 2.0652 level, its 2007 peak. A clean violation of here is needed to resume its medium term uptrend on hold since late July'07.The daily studies remain in alignment with this view. However, if the pair stalls at 1.0304/65 resistance zones and turns lower, its July 30'07 low/Aug 27'07 high at 2.0191/81 will be aimed at as the immediate support followed by the 2.0132 level, its .50 Ret (1.9632-2.0652)/April 18'07 high and the next at the 2.0059/72 area, its April 25/26'07/May 01'07 high. A clearance of here will set the stage for further downside weakness towards the 1.9966 area, its Jun 05'07/ high and even lower at the 1.9880/77 zone, which is the location of its weekly channel base/weekly 200 ema/Sept 21'07 low. All in all, GBP requires a sustained penetration of 2.0304/65 zone, which is the trigger to further upside gains.

Directional Bias:

• Nearer Term -Bullish
• Short Term -Bearish
• Medium Term -Bullish

Performance in %:

• Past Week: +0.62%
• Past Month: -0.59%
• Past Quarter: +2.09 %
• Year-To-Date: +3.12%

Weekly Range:

• High -2.0212
• Low -1.9877

Weekly Chart: GBPUSD

USDJPY

After its recent fall off the 124.12 level (June 22'07 high), which was followed with a corrective recovery to as high as 117.11 in late Aug'07, USDJPY is now trading in a symmetrical triangle which is a convergence of a rising trendline and a falling trendline.In USDJPY's case, the 117.11 and 116.37 highs and the 111.58 and 112.59 lows converge to form the said pattern which is more often than not a continuation pattern but sometimes may resolve against the direction of the underlying trend. Although a break out of this pattern is required to create directional moves in this pair, while the 113.98 level, its Sept 20'07 low holds, the pattern top at 116.21 is likely to be tested where a break if seen, will target a stronger resistance area at the 117.11/17 zone, which represents its Aug 23'07 high/Aug 05'07 low. Above there will turn focus to its .50 Ret (124.12-111.58 decline) at 117.83 before its .618 Ret at 119.30 and then its Aug 08'07 at 119.82.Both the daily and weekly RSI are pointing higher implying further upside gains. On the downside, its Sept 20'07 low at 113.98 is seen as the initial support accompanied by the 112.39 level, its Sept 09'07 low. Surpassing this level will open the door for additional downside weakness towards its year-to-date low at 111.58 with a loss of there resuming its decline off the 124.12 high. On the whole, USDJPY requires a break out of its symmetrical triangle followed with an invalidation of the 117.11 level to resume its recovery effort off the 111.58 low.

Directional Bias:

• Nearer Term -Bullish
• Short Term -Bearish
• Medium Term -Bearish

Performance in %:

• Past Week: +0.11%
• Past Month: -2.32%
• Past Quarter: +4.56%
• Year-To-Date: -3.04%

Weekly Range:

• High -116.37
• Low -113.98

Daily Chart: USDJPY

Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
FxTechstrategy

This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report